On Bird Flu, Egg Prices and More
As incidents of bird flu (avian influenza) continue to expand in poultry, livestock and humans, consider the following information:
The World Health Organization said “Avian influenza normally spreads in birds but can also infect humans. Human infections are primarily acquired through direct contact with infected poultry or contaminated environments. While avian influenza viruses do not currently transmit easily from person to person, the ongoing circulation of these viruses in poultry is concerning, as these viruses can result in mild to severe illness and death, and also have the potential to mutate to become more contagious."
Former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said "Avian flu variants have proven to be particularly unpredictable and dangerous to humans in the past. Accelerating the development of new vaccines will allow us to stay ahead and ensure that Americans have the tools they need to stay safe."
The U.S. Center for Disease Control said: “the current H5N1 bird flu risk to the general public remains low." At risk populations include farmers, backyard bird flock owners, animal care workers (e.g., veterinarians, wild animal facility workers), hunters and wild bird watchers.
"there is also the potential for broader risk from the virus depending on the degree to which the virus spreads, becomes more virulent and affects a wider population."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook 2025 said “An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022, with recent detections in January 2025, contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. Egg prices in December 2024 were 36.8 percent higher than in December 2023 but still below peak prices in January 2023. Egg prices are predicted to increase 20.3 percent in 2025."
The following chart shows theaverage price of Grade A large eggs per dozenin the U.S. from December 2021 to December 2024, highlighting price volatility since the outbreak began in 2022.
OUR TAKE
The economic impact of avian influenza can extend across multiple sectors, disrupting agriculture production, international trade, consumer spending patterns, and public health resources.
Confronted with unprecedented egg price volatility projected for 2025, consumers and food service providers must develop approaches that adapt ingredient sourcing and product/menu planning while diversifying protein options.
The current outbreak reinforces the need for biosecurity protocols, resilient food supply chain systems, and outbreak prevention strategies to safeguard both economic stability and public health.