On Real Estate, Creditworthiness and the Environment
Last week, comments from Redfin's (a U.S. real estate broker) survey about “how Americans are thinking about climate change” included:
“Many Americans are factoring climate change into their decisions about where to live … About half of respondents who plan to move in the next year said extreme temperatures and/or the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters played a role in their decision to relocate. More than a third (36%) said rising sea levels were a factor.
“Nearly 80% of respondents said that increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters in an area would make them hesitant to buy a home there.
“Respondents aged 35 to 44 were most likely to say that natural disasters, extreme temperatures and/or rising sea levels played a role in their decision to move, followed by respondents aged 25 to 34. “
Note: 2,000 U.S. residents were surveyed from Feb. 25 to March 1, 2021.
Separately, comments from the Cambridge University study “Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness included:
“Enthusiasm for ‘greening the financial system’ is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision-makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks.
“To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world’s first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating.
“We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement … could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings …
"under higher emissions scenarios, 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030 … the most affected nations include Chile, China, Slovakia, Malaysia, Mexico, India, Peru and Canada."
OUR TAKE
Regarding U.S. real estate: As climate change impacts real estate valuations (both commercial and residential), owners, lenders, government officials, and others are debating mitigation and compensation approaches (examples include Annapolis and Baltimore, Maryland, and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina).
Regarding sovereign debt: The impact of environmental change will increasingly be conveyed in micro and macro-economic terms - with vulnerable countries facing higher borrowing costs and weakened creditworthiness.
Addressing environmental impacts: It is important to turn words into action – and individuals have a significant role to play in driving the change process.