On Virus Variants and Vaccine Effectiveness
Below are comments by the U.S Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the CEO of Moderna, Inc. (a vaccine provider) - from last week.
From the CDC study "Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage" (Jan. 15, 2021)
“On December 14, 2020, the United Kingdom reported a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC), lineage B.1.1.7 … and has quickly become the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant in England. B.1.1.7 has been detected in over 30 countries, including the United States. As of January 13, 2021, approximately 76 cases of B.1.1.7 have been detected in 10 U.S. states.
"Currently, there is no known difference in clinical outcomes associated with the described SARS-CoV-2 variants; however, a higher rate of transmission will lead to more cases, increasing the number of persons overall who need clinical care, exacerbating the burden on an already strained health care system, and resulting in more deaths.
"The increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant warrants rigorous implementation of public health strategies to reduce transmission and lessen the potential impact of B.1.1.7 … mitigation strategies, including vaccination, physical distancing, use of masks, hand hygiene, and isolation and quarantine, will be essential to limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and protecting public health."
From WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (media release: Jan. 11, 2021)
“Over the weekend, WHO was notified by Japan about a new variant of the virus … The more the virus spreads the higher the chance of new changes to the virus … transmissibility of some variants of the virus appears to be increasing … This can drive a surge of cases and hospitalizations, which is highly problematic for health workers and hospitals already close to breaking point.
“The variants do not seem to show increased severity of disease … With new treatments coming down the pipeline, we are hopeful that more lives of those with serious cases of COVID-19 can be saved.
“We need to follow the public health basics now more than ever … Keep as much physical distance as you can from other people. Keep rooms well-ventilated. Wear a mask. Keep your hands clean. And cough away from others into your elbow … You might get fed up of hearing it but the virus is not fed up with us."
From Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel (JP Morgan Healthcare Conference: Jan. 13, 2021)
“We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever …
Regarding vaccine effectiveness against new variants, "I'm not worried for the short term but we are watching that very closely because I think that we might be moving into a world where we need new strains of vaccine down the road - but not in the short term."
OUR TAKE
As communities confront pandemic fatigue, vigilance by everyone remains important because "the virus is not fed up with us".
Regarding virus variants - While transmission rates of variants may be 50% greater than the original virus, the rollout of vaccines and the arrival of spring may help dampen the virus' impact.
Regarding living with the virus forever - Given that variants will likely continue to evolve, virus eradication is unlikely - and healthcare strategies will have to adapt.