On the Spreading Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Last week, the new Coronavirus continued to spread (mostly in China), triggering restrictions by governments, airlines, product producers and more.
This note shares information from the US Center for Disease Control, World Health Organization and other sources on what the virus is, approaches for treatment, its geographic reach, and economic impact.
From the U.S Center for Disease Control (CDC)
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a virus identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread.
However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread is occurring
There is currently no vaccine to prevent 2019-nCoV infection.The best way to prevent infection is to avoid being exposed to this virus … CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses
From the World Health Organization
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses causing illness ranging from the common cold to severe diseases such as MERS and SARS.
A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.
The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a virus … antibiotics do not work against viruses … therefore, antibiotics should not be used as a means of prevention or treatment …
People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
There is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with the new coronavirus.
The consumption of raw or undercooked animal products should be avoided. Raw meat, milk or animal organs should be handled with care, to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods, as per good food safety practices.
Regarding the global spread of the virus
As of January 31, there are 14,556 confirmed cases worldwide, 14,381 in Mainland China, with 305 deaths.
The following table presents a breakdown of confirmed cases by country. Estimates suggest there are over 17,988 cases in China.
Regarding the relative risk of exporting the virus to countries beyond China
The following chart, from EpiRisk, presents the relative probability of exporting the virus to other areas of the world through airline transportation network and daily commuting patterns.
OUR TAKE
Regarding current global restrictions – Given the many unknowns related to the new coronavirus, it is understandable that restrictions are being enacted. Only in hindsight will we know if these initiatives were prudent or an over-reaction to the outbreak.
Regarding potential treatments - Efforts are underway by research institutions and commercial drug manufacturers to develop treatments for the virus. Among them are Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Regeneron and Vir Biotechnology. Regarding wearing a face mask to protect against the virus - it should be a N95 grade respirator.
Regarding the economic impact – The potential reach and speed that the virus may spread to other geographic regions highlights the interconnections among global economies and global supply chains. Current prevention efforts may dampen global economic growth in the short term. It is unfortunate that some political leaders view the virus as an opportunity to achieve economic advantage over China.