COVID Views from Central Bankers and More
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Last week, as COVID-19 cases increased and offerings from Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna and others improved vaccine hopes ...
Jerome Powell – Chair US Federal Reserve said:
“We've got new cases at a record level ... and people may lose confidence that it's safe to go out …
"The economy will not fully recover until people are confident that it's safe to resume activities involving crowds and people.
Regarding vaccines, “significant challenges and uncertainties remain about timing production, distribution and the efficacy for different groups ... it's just too soon to assess with any confidence the implications of the news for the path of the economy, especially in the near term.”
Christine Lagarde, President European Central Bank said:
“The latest news on a vaccine looks encouraging, [but] we could still face recurring cycles of accelerating viral spread and tightening restrictions until widespread immunity is achieved.
“We could see more lasting changes in behaviour than during the first wave …
"Households could become more fearful about the future and increase their precautionary saving. Firms that have survived up to now by increasing borrowing could decide that remaining open no longer makes business sense.”
Céline Grounder, MD- infectious diseases specialist, Biden COVID Task Force said:
“We need to be funding not just vaccines. I think another major area we need to be looking at is diagnostics …
"We're really going to be focused on how we scale testing, especially testing asymptomatic people, and how we scale up contact tracing …
"The most important thing is to have data.”
OUR TAKE
In the short-term, as COVID overwhelms health-care resources in some communities - pandemic fatigue and economic stress present broad challenges to the US and other hard-hit countries.
Powell’s views on vaccine production, distribution and efficacy seem on-target - it will take several months to develop a good understanding of these vaccine dynamics.
As Lagarde suggests – the pandemic's duration will determine the depth of its social and economic impact.
Regarding Grounder’s focus beyond vaccines – our understanding of COVID-19, and its mutations, is still evolving – eradication seems unlikely, and managing the pandemic will require more research, more data - and more global cooperation.